Uganda’s projected $500bn economy by 2040 is a big joke by Ugandan arts teachers and why they deserve no pay at all at this point

Op-Ed: This is a self-critical article aimed at checking my (and comrades) own prior assumptions and should in no way be taken as a standard of thinking but as a tool to guide with the original plan by the government and implementers as well as to highlight the main threats to attaining such a POSSIBLE target.

They may need a calculator to check some figures and some may not be accurate to dot though based on official estimates and rounding off to the nearest workable number. However, each figure is attained from a valid reference e.g UBOS, UNBS, WB, IMF, News Articles in the New vision etc

Let’s begin! 

“Arts people” should not be paid the same salary with any other professional, but must be paid a FAIR salary for whatever they can contribute as per their capacity, skills and impact. That is how wages are determined, not by governments but by free market forces of demand and supply. If private Schools and employees are paying their Scientists the same as Artists, then the demand for EQUAL by anyone would be justified. Those are the thinkings of Matua Jacob Richard, the Asst RDC of Arua City, who has faced severe online backlash over defending the President’s stand on fair wages and labor rights as I followed closely.

I agree entirely with MJR. No Private school in Uganda pays the same for arts teachers and Science ones for example, so why should any Government which is not supposed to interfere with the free market for Education be coerced into participating in Labor controls, Price controls etc. Isn’t that why We can’t allow a minimum wage as it would scare away investors from such a tender but fast growing market ?

Though am a proud practical artist and arts teachers by hobby, due to my profession graduation and practice of Agricultural sciences, I have even a deeper criticism of typical Ugandan Arts ‘teacher’ of Uganda today.

On top of Lying that Uganda had discovered 31 million tonnes of gold ore, potentially yielding 320,158 tonnes of refined gold, valued at $12.8 trillion, which would make Uganda the richest country in history after Mansa Musa’s Mali,,, an untested THEORY they shamelessly forwarded to his Excellency to read to the world, an amount that defies logic as it’s more than all the Gold ever mined in the history of man,, which is JUST 216,265 tonnes, the Ugandan “Arts Teachers from the Economic Field” came back to his Excellency like the other Professor with a white hat and nice beards of “Corona Virus cure”, and told his Excellency that Uganda’s Economy will be $500 by GDP by 2025. The same was echoed by the Minister of Finance Hon Matia Kasaija the most beloved of African ministers in Social media today by the world wide web.

The GDP is the sum of value of all that is produced in that country per year. In short, our Economists claim that within the next 15 years from today each Ugandan (and then we shall be 61m in population) will have grown Wealthy TIMES 9 approximately. That’s how wild a theory because the same has never happened in the last 15 or even 500 years ago.

In 2010, Uganda’s GDP was $24.7 bn, according to countryeconomy.com. This figure represented a 7.5% growth compared to the previous year. The GDP per capita in 2010 was $809. From 2010 to date it’s been 15 years.

Uganda’s GDP in June 2025 is projected to be around $55.5 billion USD. This is a projection based on current market prices, and it’s an increase from the estimated $52 billion USD in 2024. The economy is expected to grow by 7% in the fiscal year 2025/26, reaching an estimated UGX 254.2 trillion, which translates to roughly $66.1 billion USD. Let that sink in. Am coming.

This implies that for the last 15 years, Uganda has managed to expand by ONLY 167% .

From today June 2025 to June 2040 where Uganda anticipates to have a GDP of $500 is also 15 years. But Ugandan Economists are telling us that we shall grow from current projected $66.1bn to $500bn (656%) within the SAME time frame???????

Nayeeee!!! Who is calculating these things and feeding them to the database of his Excellency? Isn’t forecasting an economic Future as easy as studying the economic trends of the past and current? Even at the current 6.1% (World Bank) growth for April 2025, Uganda can never make it to $500bn but about $126bn (6.1%*15/100*66.1bn)+66.1bn, which is the realistic target figure they should have given his excellency for the year 2040.

But these fake Ugandan Economists are BANKING all their figures on a projected 8-10% growth starting in 2026/27 claiming WILDLY that the beginning of the OIL Exporting and other industrial activities shall boost and keep the Economy at that Pace for the next 15 years, a laughable Junk of warped thinkings based on several uncalled for economic assumptions.

First and foremost, if Oil is to begin flowing next year, by today, MOST of those who shall be benefitting MUST already have begun earning as they are preparing to begin running all machines e.g engineers, cooks, suppliers, UEDCL, NWSC bills, FDIs to the tune of $2bn etc. The output from these have already been added to make the 66.1bn and anticipated 7% growth. To assume that by simply turning on Taps, a total 3% shall be added to the Economy in just ONE 12 months from today is a BIG JOKE that quack Economists told NRM leaders. Why is it that it’s always the most unknowledgeable people who get the right Jobs??

The rate of growth of an economy using GDP nominal or purchasing power parity is determined by several factors but mostly a boost in local production and efficiency, quality assurance, advanced supply chains, formalization of the economy, creation of jobs, rapid free market industrialization, growth of exports and a favorable Balance of Trade.

By studying the the history of Ugandan Economics whereby many wrong political and technical Decisions interfere during implementation of SUCH great plans ultimately to fail everything, from great NAADs plans to the timelines for SGR and even the multiple extended dates for the beginning of oil activities, I don’t therefore fall for such shiny baseless targets of figures without first calculating the options myself.

First and foremost, though its indeed true that for the last 5 years, Ugandan Shilling has remained stable at about UGX 3,600 per dollar, if you assess how annoyingly Unstable and WASTEFUL to the Economy that same shilling has behaved in the last 15 years to the Ugandan Wealth created, you begin to even question what the $66.1bn economy means.

It is simply a heavily inflated dollar and even UGX regime overtime that when carried backwards may be equivalent to the same old $24.7bn of 2010 to a Ugandan laborer, saver and even investor of today.

Remember the same Dollar has Lost over 47% of its value. $1 in 2010 is equivalent to $1.47 today. Now remove 47% from your $66.1 bn you claim. Then the UGX has lost the same figure already stated above. So whether you state the progress in trillions of shillings of dollars, one must Deduct such losses to unmask the real economics which may not be doing “pswwewewww” (Kasaija) but bwebababa’ (Naduli).

The bank of Uganda has also been one of the contributors to this waste by currency. By 2010 each dollar costed just UGX 1,700 per Dollar. An apocalyptic unacceptable 112% LOSS in VALUE of the SHILLING and whoever ever touched it within the last 15 years. So if the UGX can Lose 112% of its value in Just 15 years, what makes one to imagine that the factors that caused such a loss have now miraculously flown away? Add this Loss to the dollar Loss in value to see that even today’s $66.1bn is not real a figure.

Now has Uganda of now, just become heaven in 2025 and that now every system, responsible person, controls and institution now perfect enough to turn an average growth of 5% (non oil plus to 2% of oil) to 10% within just ONE Year? Who is following??

If you have reached this point by now, really wasoma.

From the above pace of depreciation of the shillings, it becomes evident that by 2040 the MISMANAGEMENT of Bank of Uganda by incompetent Economist shall have the 1 US Dollar cost Ugx 7,632. This means that one Soda of UGX 1000 shall cost UGX 2,120 by 2040,,

Imagine you have saved 100m under the bed till then, it would buy less than HALF what it can buy today,,,, in a $500bn economy we are bragging about you can now see that it shall imply NOTHING really to the commoner whose currency the UGX is the major platform to transact and sustain Value of their labor and assets.

Even if such an Economy would be worth $500bn it would have one of the Weakest Currencies on Planet earth, which also Does NOT make Economic sense therefore. Something is therefore very WRONG with the $500bn the same way it’s wrong for the 320,125 tonnes of Gold assumptions.

So some arts teacher out there is not Lying to the President that we can make $500bn by 2040,,,, Someone is simply Just Pretending that he/she isn’t aware that the SAME factors that prevented Uganda from expanding by over 656% as planned for 2040 have NOT gone away,,,,, the Corruption, unqualified incompetent Revenue and unqualified financial admins and economic decision makers and assessors and even Central Bank officials who call their IMF friends to ask about everything to implement in Uganda without thinking OUT of the Box first.

The Lazy and extravagant thieving public servants, the inefficiency and poor timeliness of execution of government programs, poorly paid government workers who cannot afford the pace of Such INFLATION of the shilling, dollar and an economy which simply seems to be expanding People’s personal and National Debts and not real wealth and National Economic value but only in imagined figures.

When we calculate GDP figures, sometimes we IMPUTE the value or cost that you who owns a Kasisira (hut) would have Paid if you were Renting it from a landlord. That’s how these GDP Figures are COOKED for example. Well, it’s fine to impute, a rent of 10k today for most Ugandans as an example, but by 2040, one can’t tell How Much rent would be. It could be 5k or 100k per Hut. And such complexities also render the assumptions by current Ugandan Economies null and Void.

True, the onset of petroleum production and other domino effects shall cause massive output, but none tells you that MOST of that Output (product) will be Exported or expatriated for Free.

Apart from local and corporate Taxes which are some of the most unfair on earth for a Government against foreign investors, there is very little NEW economic benefit a typical Ugandan shall benefit from such meagre oil barrels even when they begin moving.

The petroleum industry is so technical that most suppliers and contractors are and will always be foreign and they shall take whatever they earn from oil out of Uganda within the next 15 years. To anticipate SUCH to become PART of your GDP yet those exports of currency are Deducted from the Overall GDP figures is another joke.

Even if we build a refinery it will be owned by a foreign consortium who will export all the earnings. Even if we introduce 1000 new petrochemical companies the bulk of the Profits from these shall head to the foreign investor not the employees with no minimum wage protection. You wait and see. Hoping the 1,000 factories employ 100,000 new Ugandans, the Ugandan will work in those oil products companies owned by foreigners and will be paid UGX 5,000 per day for the next 15 years,,, so how does SUCH economics Multiply their wealth by 9 times comrade Ggobi et al??

Today I shall not provide suggestions and solutions, as I only came to give Fake Ugandan Economists Headache ! The solutions to each challenge can therefore he found in the method used to critic each official assumption.

For God and My Country 

The author is Asiimwe “Jago Minyang Makombo” Patrick Ndahura, Crop Scientist, NRM Political Economy theorist, Journalist, Global strategist at ACUP & Asst RDC of Masindi District of Uganda.

Disclaimer: As UG Reports Media LTD, we welcome any opinion from anyone if it’s constructive for the development of Uganda. All the expressions and opinions in this write-up are not those of UG Reports Media Ltd. but of the author of the article.

Would you like to share your opinion with us? Please send it to this email: theugreports@gmail.com.