Behind the golden curtain of Uganda’s powerhouse, three casts emerge: directors, ambitious actors, and extras who never make the credits. In other words: shot callers, go-getters, and expendables.
Recently, the Ugandan political arena has been predictably scripted, I could write a TV show about the events before they happen, and they’d unfold in perfect correspondence. We’re talking constitutional amendments, military operations, tax policies, regional cooperation, new appointments to high offices, corruption, and, most of all, the presidency. Given his popularity, experience, wit, and power, many believe President Museveni will win the 2026 elections. You could bet your life on it.
However, this easy predictability might not hold after President Museveni, assuming he decides to keep his word this time and not run again. The next president is where the shocking surprise is most likely to come. Let’s look at the known possible options, and why they might all fall short.
The Vice President: Constitutionally, the vice president takes office if the president becomes incapacitated, dies, or is impeached. But in Uganda, vice presidents have been less influential publicly, often seen as ceremonial or glorified secretaries. On paper, they are the most powerful person after the president, but in reality… you already know the answer. The chances of a vice president becoming president are like being struck by lightning.
The UPDF: The Uganda People’s Defence Forces are globally recognized for efficiency, precision, and discipline, despite a few bad apples. In Africa, several armies have taken power after a previous president.
The UPDF might seem like the next best option to maintain order, given their efficiency in government projects and restoring order in situations that overwhelm the police. But are they prepared to run an entire country? Influential individuals in the UPDF with questionable behavior could undermine public confidence in their ability to lead as President Museveni did.
The First Son: Many Ugandans assume Gen. Muhoozi is next in line. He has shown interest, proven mobilization skills through the PLU, and garnered support for his youthful aura, anti-corruption stance, UPDF innovations, and candor (and sometimes controversial remarks on X).
He has military, administrative, and mobilization experience. But unlike his father, Gen. Muhoozi is unpredictable, a wildcard, as a news agency once described him. If he wants the presidency, odds favor him winning an election naturally, a military coup, or the army taking over in a state of emergency. Like Paul Kagame, who took control of Rwanda in the ’90s but didn’t immediately become president despite favorable odds, Gen. Muhoozi’s ambiguity might lead him down a similar path, removing him from the list of straightforward replacements.
The Opposition: The opposition has been promising but fleeting. Kizza Besigye amassed support until people lost hope, defected, or formed new parties. Robert Kyagulanyi followed a similar path: huge popularity, declining support, desertions. Other potentials, like Gen. Mugisha (an idealist and “the realest presidential material”), aren’t visible enough. Nobert Mao, smart, charismatic, and versatile, recently cooperated with the government and doesn’t seem interested anymore. Other opposition figures are barely on the radar.
The Surprise – The Shot Callers: This is the possibility most Ugandans haven’t taken seriously. These are powerful people you probably haven’t thought about, not noisy, not vocal, not concerned with media, but who call the shots. Some call them “mafias.” Look at recent primary elections: expected winners didn’t win, and decisions weren’t reversed. These people can mislead even the president himself, as noted by Afande Magufuri Moses after the 2021 elections.
They are capable of determining who wins, regardless of competence, and can sell votes to the highest bidder, as noted by Minister Balaam. They operate with impunity, as mentioned by Gen. Muhoozi.
Elections aren’t just unfair anymore, they can eliminate competition, strike names off the Electoral Commission’s list, allow unqualified candidates, and even add forged academic records. That’s why many petitions after NRM primaries are unfruitful.
Social, political, and economic systems are all within reach of these invisible political operators. Look at unscrupulous syndicated deals, unresolved unpopular government programs, unrecovered missing funds, and no arrests or charges. Serious cases often settle into dust. Intentional failures, like ignoring the life audit of a former IGG, have been executed successfully for multimillion projects and could work for the presidency too. If that happens, we’re all in trouble.
According to Lt. (rtd) Magufuri Moses Mugisha, the President of Uganda needs to initiate a super political transition intelligence network focused on transparency and quality control. This could ensure a smooth transition, deliver a new president, and keep Uganda peaceful.
Otherwise, there will be no gains left to protect. The mafias could seize control, shocking Ugandans with a surprise president after Museveni’s able leadership and potential chaos.
