Uganda at crossroads: Is it time for father-son political transition

Op-Ed: On Thursday, March 21, 2024, at around 2100 hours, all mass media outlets in Uganda and beyond were awash with the news of His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda, reshuffled his cabinet of ministers and also made changes in the establishment of the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF).

His son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba being appointed as the new Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), the highest rank in the Army in Uganda, while General Wilson Mbasu Mbadi, the former Chief of Defense Forces (CDF), was moved to the position of State Minister for Trade.

General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, popularly known as “General MK,” will be deputized by Lt. General Samuel Okiding, replacing General Peter Elwelu, who has been moved to the president’s office as a senior presidential advisor.

Major General Jackson Bakasumba becomes the new UDF Joint Chief of Staff, replacing Major General Leopold Kyanda, who has been appointed as a military attaché.

In the cabinet reshuffles, all other Ministers retained their positions with the exception of Dr Ssempijja Vincent Bamulagaki former Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs who was moved to the President’s Office as Senior Presidential Advisor and replaced by his former deputy Hon Oboth Markson.

Dr Kitutu Gorreti former Minister in the office of the Prime Minister in charge Karamoja Affairs and her deputy Hon Agnes Nandutu who were dropped due to the “Karamoja Iron sheet saga” the duo are facing corruption charges in the Anti-corruption court both replaced by Hon Peter as Minister in the Prime Ministers Office in charge Karamoja Lokeris and Hon Florence Nambozo Wamala as State minister in the Prime Minister’s office incharge of Karamoja.

Hon Kwiyucwiny Grace former Minister in Office of the Prime Minister in charge Northern region moved to President’s office as a senior Presidential Advisor replaced by Dr Omona Kenneth former President’s Personal Secretary;Hon Ntabazi Harriet former Minister of State for trade moved to Office of the President as Senior Presidential Advisor replaced by General Wilson Mbadi Mbasu formerly the CDF updf;Hon Mateke Sarah State Minster for Defence and Veterans Affairs replacing Hon Oboth Markson;Dr Balaam Barugahara as State Minister for Labour and Social Development (Youth and Children Affairs);Hon Aber Lilian State Minister Office of the Prime Minister (Relief);Hon Nyamutoro Phiona State Minister Energy and mineral development (Minerals).

All these cabinet reshuffles of ministers and changes within the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) establishment by His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda, were done when the country was at a crossroads, perplexed by the contentious question of the political transition of the NRM’s top leadership position in the event that the incumbent leader retired from active politics in the not too distant future.

Uganda as a Republic is endowed with a rich, remarkable, and memorable political history from the pre-independence and post-independence eras to date. Uganda also had a dark political history whereby past regimes were characterized by bloodshed, murders, disappearances of innocent persons, turmoil, gross abuse of human rights, looting, a lack of peace, security, and tranquility, instability, conflict,  dysfunctional state machinery, and decadence of law and order; arbitrary killings.

Since Uganda attained her political Independence from Britain(Uganda’s colonial masters) on 9th October 1962,it has chronologically had seven President’s and a Military commission namely HE Sir Edward Muteesa II from October 1963 – March 1966,HE Dr Apollo Milton Obote from March 1966 -January 1971 and again from December 1980 -July 1985;HE Field Marshal Idi Amin Dada from January 1971 -April 1979;HE Professor Yusuf Kironde Lule from April -June 1979;HE Godfrey Lukongwa Binaisa from June 1979 -May 1980;HE Paulo Mwanga’s Military Commission from 5th-10th May 1980;HEs Bazilio Olara Okello and Tito Okello Lurwa the Military junta from July 1985-January 1986;HE Yoweri Kaguta Museveni from January 1986 to date.

On January 26, 1986, the NRM/A led by HE Yoweri Kaguta Museveni captured state power after years of waging a protracted Bush war against the despotic past governments in Uganda so as to liberate the country.

In comparison to the previous regimes ,the NRM government has so far performed better politically registering the following milestones and achievements namely:

The economy is liberalized, Uganda is now an attractive investment destination to both foreign and local investors, Uganda is moving into a middle income status,Freedom of speech/worship/association;Fast economic growth registered;Existence of peace,stability,security and tranquility(this can be illustrated by the recent hosting of two large international meetings- Non Aligned Movement NAM and the Group-77 G77 at Munyonyo Kampala in January -February 2024);Uganda is also an attractive tourist and trading destination; Industrialization; the privatization of different sectors of the economy; Infrastructural development (Highways, Stadia, Flyovers, Bridges, the Oil and gas pipeline/refinery construction, roads, buildings and Entebbe International Airport);Exploration of natural and mineral resources(including the oil and gas industry);a conducive political environment/climate enabling political pluralism/multiparty dispensation;a functional Health system in the fight against epidemics/pandemics for both human and animal diseases such as Covid-19,HIV/AIDS,Foot and mouth disease,Ebola, trypanosomiasis (sleeping foot sickness), etc. Universal primary and secondary education; the Parish Development Model; professionalization of the army and other state security agencies; a concerned fight against the evils of corruption, land grabbing, homosexuality, poverty, and hunger; the functional arms of the government, namely the judiciary, legislature, and executive; the existence of law and order; robust revenues and tax collection systems; restoration and coexistence with monarchical institutions; sound regional and international cooperation and relations with neighbors and the donor communities.

Uganda, like other third-world countries, is highly indebted, donor-dependent, and lacks adequate resources and funds to sufficiently cater for all its budget and national programs at the national level as a country.

As I write, Uganda is at a crossroads about the contentious issue of the political transition of its top leadership position in the event that the incumbent Head of State relinquished power and decided to retire in the not too distant future.

The elevation/promotion of General Muhoozi Kainerugaba to the position of Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) of the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) by his father, His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the President of Uganda, clearly sends a political signal to the public and the Ugandan citizens that a solution to this contentious question of political transition is almost found, and General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is a likely presidential candidate following his recent political activities and country-wide campaigns under his political pressure group, the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU).

Currently, the main opposition parties in Uganda are the Democratic Party (DP), led by Norbert Mao, who also serves as a full Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs under the NRM government; the National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Sentamu Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, a Ugandan artist-turned-politician; the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), led by Engineer Patrick Aboi Amuriat; the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC), led by Hon. Jimmy Akena, son of former President of Uganda, Dr. Apollo Milton Obote; and others, the Conservative Party (CP). These opposition parties are politically disorganized, docile, uncoordinated, weak, feeble, under-resourced, lack focus and objectivity while launching their political agenda and strategies in positioning to capture state power; moreover, some of them are already working with the NRM government, whereas others are entangled in unending internal conflicts and wrangles amongst their members of the rank-and-file.

These actions enable their integrity to function as fully fledged opposition parties to counteract the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government, which enjoys popular support amongst the masses.

In Uganda,the newly appointed Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) CDF General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, with his political ambitions to become the next president of Uganda after the retirement of his father, His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda, is clearly seen as having been traversing the entire country under his political pressure group, the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), on political campaigns,though he is still a serving senior army officer with the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF).

Different mass media were awash with news about General Muhoozi Kainerugaba and his PLU “party” political activities, and the continuous silence of his father, the incumbent HE Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda, about General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s partisan political activities because they were in contravention of the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) Act, Section 99, which stipulates that all serving military officers are prohibited from being partisan or participating in political activities of any nature.

Defiance of this Act would imply that the culprits would be arrested, detained, charged, and sentenced. They could also be court-marshaled by the army establishment. Examples of former serving army officers who were arrested by the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) establishment for being partisans are Retired General Sejjusa Tunyefuza David,Retired General Henry Tumukunde, and Retired Colonel Dr Warren Pizza Besigye Kifefe.

According to the current political dynamics, environment, and terrain in Uganda today, assuming the general and presidential elections were held today, the incumbent and the NRM government would win with a landslide victory, defeating the opposition parties because the NRM still enjoys majority support in Uganda from the masses and is still very popular.

In my view, political competition for the presidency is very healthy and acceptable if it is done in a transparent manner during the election period, and the process should be free and fair with all the participants mutually accepting the outcome. In this political game, we have a winner and a loser.

We are anticipating witnessing a scenario as the 2026 presidential elections draw nearer where a son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is now the Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) CDF, will politically challenge his biological father, the incumbent. His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni will vie for the top-most position of the land on the ballot box come 2026. It will be NRM vs. PLU political parties, with other opposition parties also participating in the race to capture state power.

One political scholar once wrote, “When an elected leader overstays in power, the power satiates that leader’s mind to serve only his interests, and he forgets to serve the interests of his people and country.”.

Is a General Muhoozi Kainerugaba Presidency possible?

Yes and no. Yes, because the current political and military environment is favorable for him. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) CDF, is only one step away from the seat of the presidency, as manifested in the political hierarchical queue to the presidency and by virtue of the authority bestowed upon him by his father, the incumbent His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda.

General Muhoozi Kainerugaba has exhibited interest in the presidency by forming his own political pressure group, the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), which was also acknowledged by the incumbent’s father, His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president of Uganda.

Over the years the president has been preparing and politically seasoning his son General Muhoozi Kainerugaba by assigning him tasks to perform,sending him for advanced professional military training abroad/overseas, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba is a hardworking, disciplined, subservient and youthful senior military officer who deserves to be appointed to the highest rank in the UPDF establishment and I am confident with his versatile experience and exposure he can satisfactorily handle the entireUganda Peoples Defense Force(UPDF) establishment and if given the opportunity when all go as per his dreams coupled with his fathers blessings ,he can also ably lead the country Uganda as an elected Head of State when the incumbent His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni retires from active politics in future.

No. General Muhoozi Kainerugaba may not directly become the next president of the Republic of Uganda because His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is going to stand as the NRM flag bearer for another political term of office in 2026. This logically implies that General Muhoozi Kainerugaba has to exercise a lot of patience politically to fully mature, continue with his country-wide mobilizations and popularization of his PLU “party” through political campaigns and rallies, register the PLU as a political party and form political party structures country-wide, prepare to retire from the Army and stand for the Presidency 2031–2036 presidential elections.

With these strategies, I am confident that General Muhoozi Kainerugaba will win the elections and become the next president of the Republic of Uganda.

In conclusion, as the saying goes, “Even a child can drum for elders to dance, in Uganda today we have a large number of learned and educated university and college graduates who are unemployed, and every day this number is surging upwards, making this issue  a “time bomb” in the future if not handled now.

You will agree with me that the youth are our leaders of tomorrow. They are the young saplings of trees in a vast tropical forest to replace the old, dying trees.

Corruption is another serious cancer, siphoning away scarce resources into the hands of a few selfish leaders in our communities and government. These resources are badly required for the survival of the entire population in service delivery programs and to support other government services that benefit the entire population. Other issues to address are equal opportunities for all, poverty, hunger, and famine. Uganda is among the third-world countries where some of our people die of famine, hunger, and malnutrition in some parts of the country, despite the fact that we are endowed with very fertile, arable land and a conducive climate with bimodal rainfall regimes.

We shall welcome any person elected as President of Uganda by the people of Uganda after the retirement of his

Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni from active politics. If our new president will be the current Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) CDF General Muhoozi Kainerugaba under his PLU “party,” we peace-loving and patriotic Ugandans are well prepared to receive and work with him for the good of our country, Uganda, “The Pearl of Africa.”.

“For God and our country, Uganda.”

The author is Kizito Simon Njaye, research associate at African Research Consult – Uganda Chapter.

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